A New Deal for Europe

A strong, sovereign, democratic and fair Europe

Discussion paper — 11 November 2026

The case: Europe must take greater responsibility for its future

Europe does not lack plans. It lacks shared ownership of them.

The world around it has changed. The United States is increasingly willing to use its economic power as leverage. China dominates important manufacturing sectors and the processing of critical minerals. Russia remains a militarised threat, while India is emerging as an increasingly influential economic and geopolitical power.

Europe's vulnerability lies in its dependence on others for essential technologies, raw materials, energy and security.

The answer is not isolationism, protectionism or a retreat from international cooperation. It is to build the capacity to act independently, negotiate as an equal and maintain strong partnerships from a position of strength.

Europe needs a new political and economic settlement: one that combines strategic independence with shared prosperity, industrial ambition with social responsibility, and national interests with a common European purpose.

The vision

A Europe that makes what it needs, defends what it values, and shares the gains.

This is not a proposal for a European superstate, nor a return to competing national economic policies. It is a practical programme built around the things European countries can achieve more effectively together.

Five commitments

1. Secure: protect Europe's capacity to act

• Deliver the Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030, strengthening air and drone defence, protecting the eastern flank and developing a more integrated European defence market.
• Maintain long-term support for Ukraine and recognise that European security extends beyond the EU's borders.
• Treat critical raw materials, energy infrastructure and essential supply chains as strategic security priorities.
• Reduce excessive dependence on external suppliers for essential defence technologies and components.
• Strengthen European cooperation in intelligence, cybersecurity and protection of critical infrastructure.

Security must mean more than military expenditure. It also means economic resilience and the ability to make independent decisions.

2. Make: rebuild Europe's productive capacity

Europe needs to become a stronger industrial and technological power.

• Semiconductors and AI: advance Chips Act 2.0 and support the development of AI gigafactories, ensuring that Europe participates in the technologies shaping the next generation of industry.
• Critical materials: expand processing and recycling capacity in Europe while developing reliable partnerships with other countries through the Critical Raw Materials Act and RESourceEU.
• Energy: accelerate investment in grids, storage, renewables, nuclear where nationally chosen, and other low-carbon technologies.
• Agriculture: modernise European farming through precision agriculture, reduced dependence on imported fertilisers, innovation and investment in rural communities.
• Research and innovation: connect universities, research institutions and businesses more effectively, turning European scientific excellence into European economic strength.

The objective is not to manufacture everything within Europe. It is to ensure that the loss of any single external supplier cannot threaten essential European capabilities.

Public investment should support innovation and competitiveness, not permanently protect inefficient businesses or create national monopolies.

3. Clean: make the climate transition a source of strength

Europe's environmental commitments must be grounded in science and accompanied by credible economic policies.

• Implement the legally established 2040 climate target of a 90% net reduction in emissions, with regular reviews and a strong emphasis on domestic reductions.
• Prioritise European clean energy production, recognising that energy independence is also a matter of security.
• Invest in electricity networks, storage, efficiency and industrial decarbonisation.
• Strengthen adaptation to heat, drought, flooding and other consequences of climate change.
• Support farmers, businesses and households through the transition, ensuring that the costs do not fall disproportionately on those least able to afford them.

Climate policy and industrial policy must reinforce one another. Europe should not simply import the technologies required to meet its environmental objectives.

4. Share: make prosperity meaningful to ordinary Europeans

Economic growth is not an end in itself. Its value lies in improving people's lives.

A European New Deal must ensure that the benefits of technological progress, industrial investment and economic integration are widely shared.

• Promote decent employment, fair wages and effective worker representation.
• Invest in education, vocational training and lifelong learning.
• Strengthen affordable housing, public services and access to healthcare.
• Ensure that rural communities, smaller towns and economically weaker regions participate in new investment.
• Help workers adapt to automation, artificial intelligence and industrial transformation.
• Give local communities and employees a meaningful voice in major economic transitions.

Europe must demonstrate that strategic autonomy is not simply about strengthening corporations and governments. It is about giving its citizens greater security, opportunity and control over their future.

5. Fund: invest responsibly in Europe's future

The scale of Europe's investment challenge is substantial. Mario Draghi's 2024 competitiveness report estimated that additional investment of up to €800 billion annually would be required.

This cannot realistically be achieved through public budgets alone. European institutions must use public investment to attract private capital and encourage cooperation between national governments, businesses and financial institutions.

I propose a time-limited European Investment Pact, based on five principles:

1. Use common European financing where projects deliver demonstrable benefits across national borders.
2. Prioritise loans, guarantees and investment instruments over unconditional transfers, while recognising that grants may be justified for genuine European public goods.
3. Explore refinancing or rolling over existing NextGenerationEU repayments to create budgetary flexibility, without pretending that deferred liabilities disappear.
4. Give productive investment greater recognition within European fiscal rules, subject to transparent accounting and credible safeguards.
5. Attach public funding to measurable conditions: delivery milestones, research and development, employment, environmental performance, European supply-chain resilience and respect for the rule of law.

Public money should generate a measurable public return.

The aim is neither permanent debt mutualisation nor a return to austerity. It is responsible investment in assets and capabilities that will strengthen Europe's future prosperity.

Partnerships beyond Europe

European sovereignty should strengthen international cooperation, not undermine it.

India

The EU–India trade agreement concluded in January 2026 offers an opportunity to build a substantial economic partnership. Europe should work towards its implementation while addressing legitimate Indian concerns about the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

Mercosur and the Gulf

Diversify trade and investment partnerships, including through the Mercosur agreement and developing relations with the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf economies.

United Kingdom

Develop a practical, project-by-project relationship covering energy networks, emissions trading, food standards, research, defence industry and scientific cooperation.

The objective is to recover useful cooperation without reopening the question of EU membership. Participation should have clear responsibilities and an agreed financial contribution.

United States

Remain a committed transatlantic ally. But a strong partnership requires capable partners. Europe should reduce excessive dependencies in defence, technology and trade, making the transatlantic relationship more balanced and sustainable.

China

Maintain economic and diplomatic engagement while insisting on reciprocity, fair competition and respect for intellectual property. Reduce strategic dependencies in critical technologies and materials without abandoning cooperation on climate change and global challenges.

A political bargain between European countries

A European New Deal will succeed only if different national interests are recognised and reconciled.

It cannot be imposed by Brussels, nor designed exclusively by the largest member states.

• Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Finland and Sweden: responsible financing, loans where appropriate, sunset clauses, transparent accounting, conditionality and measurable results.
• France: stronger European industrial capabilities in semiconductors, AI, energy and defence, alongside greater strategic autonomy.
• Italy, Spain and other cohesion countries: investment in infrastructure, employment, agriculture and regional development, with fair access to industrial projects.
• Poland and the eastern flank: credible defence guarantees, air and drone protection, energy security and sustained support for Ukraine.
• Smaller member states: meaningful participation in decision-making and access to the benefits of European investment.

No country should be expected to finance a European priority without having a meaningful stake in its economic and strategic benefits. Equally, no country should receive European support without accepting shared responsibilities.

The objective is not to eliminate national differences. It is to identify common interests that are sufficiently important to justify collective action.

Making the agreement last

The post-war European settlement offers an important lesson: lasting cooperation depends on countries recognising that their long-term interests are better served together than separately.

A new agreement should therefore be built through participation, negotiation and shared responsibility.

1. A European declaration

A mixed group of national leaders should develop and sign a common declaration setting out the vision, principles and measurable objectives for 2030.

2. A jointly designed Investment Pact

The financing mechanism should be negotiated by countries with different fiscal positions and economic priorities. It must not be perceived as a project designed by the Commission and presented to national governments as a fait accompli.

3. Independent accountability

An independent European scientific and economic advisory board should publish an annual assessment of progress, investment, employment, competitiveness, environmental performance and regional benefits.

The public should be able to see what has been promised, what has been delivered and where corrective action is necessary.

Honest objections and difficult questions

A serious proposal must recognise that disagreement is legitimate.

The fiscally conservative countries will question further common borrowing and demand strict financial discipline. Their concerns deserve respect. The answer is limited, conditional and transparent investment, not an open-ended commitment to debt.

Industrial and climate sceptics will argue that environmental targets and regulation threaten competitiveness. The answer is to connect climate ambitions to realistic industrial investment, affordable energy and regular assessments of economic impact.

Those concerned about social spending will question whether defence and industrial investment will divert resources from public services. This is a legitimate concern. Security and prosperity must not be pursued at the expense of social cohesion.

Those who believe Europe is moving too slowly will argue that voluntary cooperation and lengthy negotiations cannot match the speed of global competitors. They have a point. The answer must include deadlines, measurable milestones and a willingness among participating countries to move ahead together where agreement is possible.

International partners will have their own concerns about European trade, environmental regulation and strategic independence. These should be addressed through negotiation, not ignored.

The underlying principle

Europe does not need to agree on everything. Its member states have different histories, economies, political traditions and priorities.

But they share fundamental interests: peace, prosperity, security, democracy, scientific progress and the preservation of a society in which economic success benefits more than a privileged few.

The challenge is to build a European project around those shared interests rather than allowing disagreements to paralyse collective action.

This New Deal is an invitation to do precisely that.

Europe should not seek to recreate its former position in the world. It should build a different kind of power: economically capable, technologically advanced, militarily credible, environmentally responsible and socially cohesive.

Its strength should be measured not simply by the size of its economy or the power of its institutions, but by the opportunities, security and confidence it provides to its citizens.

A stronger Europe is not an end in itself. It is a means of giving Europeans greater control over their common future.

Richard Jenkins · I Dream of Thought