Hard Times for Us All

Ukraine was invaded twelve days ago, when I wrote this.

Some things to note:

1. As in every war, the truth is the first victim — and probably the last one too. The media is at best wishful thinking and at worst propaganda.
2. Russia invaded Ukraine to try to keep its huge mass together. Russia is enormous and has no economy, only oligarchs. Putin will be seeking their funding. Russia is trying to show it still has influence, and Ukraine appeared to be easy pickings — or so Putin thought.
3. Russia kept Ukraine out of NATO and the EU while making the EU, NATO, and euro currency neighbours nervous. It also guaranteed supply routes to both Kaliningrad and the warm Mediterranean waters. Geography matters: Russia’s only other major port is Vladivostok. This helps explain Syria and Cyprus.
4. Putin knows no one will use nuclear weapons first, so as long as he leaves NATO alone for now, he can do what he wants. NATO will not do much, and Biden has said the US will not become involved with boots on the ground. As usual, there is no US presence in Europe until the US thinks it can win.
5. Plucky Ukraine has held off Russia for twelve days, but that will not continue as Russian troops cut water and power and destroy civilian targets. European countries are sending arms and cash, but it remains to be seen whether these will end up in Russian hands.
6. China will play the long game. If Russia implodes, China will help itself to what it wants from the carcass like hungry jackals. It will sit on the fence with one leg in Russia’s garden.
7. European countries will now spend far more on defence. But they forget logistics at their peril. Russia had 50 kilometres of tanks ready to go into Kyiv, but no petrol.
8. Russia’s secret weapon is its hard winter, which has defeated army after army from Napoleon to Hitler. That will soon be over, and global warming means it may become a losing battle for Russian defensive troops on the ground.
9. Raw materials will all increase in price, as Ukraine is a huge producer of cobalt, nickel, grain, and maize. It is one of the biggest international traders and a major tech exporter. Europe is dependent on Ukraine for a great deal, as are India, China, and the US. That is why Russia wants it so badly. At the end of the Covid financial bounce-back, inflation, shortages, and civil disobedience will all increase. Wages will rise and that squeezes employers and employment. After World War I, Spanish flu killed more than the war. After Covid, which has killed six million and counting, this European war may kill as many.
10. This is war. War is hell. Putin probably will not stop at Ukraine. He is trying to keep Kaliningrad from joining the other Baltic states in independence and is sending messages to Siberia, Kamchatka, Karelia, and many other regions. Chechnya found out that Russia will trample you, and Ukraine seems to be on the same path. Mess with the mafia of the Kremlin and you die.
11. Putin is 70. There have been rumours about his health and possible retirement. His face was puffy and he sat at enormous tables, far away from people.